Over at National Journal there’s a pretty interesting article by political major-domo Charlie Cook that bears reading…quoting:
“The reason next year is so make-or-break for Senate Republicans is because in 2016, when all of the seats they won in 2010 come up–they netted a six-seat net gain that year–there will be 24 GOP seats up, compared with only 10 for Democrats, leading to some serious Republican overexposure. Seven of the 24 GOP senators up are hailing from states that Obama carried in 2012. After having had plentiful Democratic targets in 2012 and 2014, it will be Republicans in 2016 who will have the most incumbents in the crosshairs.”(National Journal)
For what it’s worth, Cook’s analysis is spot-on: if Democrats can hold onto their majority in the Senate (and given the seats at play in 2014 that’s still a good possibility) they could conceivably run the electoral table as far out as 2018 given the states with Senate seats in both 2016 and 2018.