Over at Booman Tribune, there’s an interesting article on the current state of the various Senate elections that will be settled come November that will play key roles in determining not just who will control the Senate but also to some degree how President Obama’s last two years in office will go. The high points:
- Polls in Georgia show that the race between David Perdue & Michelle Nunn is, for all intents-and-purposes, a dead heat; neither one has begun to edge away and unless someone does and gets past 50% plus one on Election Night, there’s likely to be a runoff
- By contrast, Kentucky’s resident turtle – Mitch McConnell – looks to be edging away ever so slightly from Alison Lundergan Grimes in that state’s Senate race; latest polls there show the Turtle leading by anywhere from 3-8 percent over the state’s resident Secretary of State
- In Kansas, Sen. Pat Roberts appears to be this year’s candidate for Dead Man Walking as he continues to poll badly vs. independent Greg Orman; even if Democrat Chris Taylor is forced to remain on the ballot, Roberts still trails Orman
- In the Natural State of Arkansas, Sen. Mark Pryor continues to hold steady vs. Rep. Tom Cotton, while former Rep. Mike Ross is actually leading his GOP opponent, former Rep. Asa Hutchison
- Finally, here in my home state of North Carolina, Se. Kay Hagan continues to eke out narrow polling leads over State House Speaker Thom Tillis…this doesn’t surprise me, for NC elections have always been close-run affairs. Case in point: when Jesse Helms was one of the state’s two U.S. senators, none of his election victories ever saw him get more than 52-53 percent of the vote. Even outside of that, the record has been that election victories are usually won w/52-55 of the vote; the last time I can recall any statewide candidate winning here in the Old North State came close to 55% was in 2012 when Pat McCrory won with 54.7% over then-Lt.Gov. Walter Dalton’s 43.2%.
So, what’s the butcher’s bill, you might ask? Well, if I had to hazard a guess, I’d say that, come the day after Election Night, Democrats will hold the Senate but it will be a close, close victory. Assuming Orman caucuses with the Dems’, that should give Harry Reid a 51-53 seat majority; evne if he caucuses with the GOP, the Dems’ should still have a 50-52 seat majority.