- In Alaska, PPP found that incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D) is still neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Dan Sullivan. While Sullivan leads 43-41, the PPP crosstabs held a major warning sign for Begich; in their polling, he currently holds a favorable/unfavorable rating of -11 (41-52) while Sullivan is at +2 (44-42). Now, if this holds up, that spells trouble for Begich as no incumbent senator wants to have a negative rating there in a state where the sitting president is already unpopular
- In Arkansas, PPP found worse news for the Dems’ as incumbent Sen. mark Pryor (D) currently trails outgoing Rep. Tom Cotton (R) 43-38, which is a 3-point increase for Cotton from early August. Worse still, Pryor has a favorable/unfavorable rating of -15 (36-51) while Cotton breaks even – barely – at -1 (40-41). Now, a pair of other polls had Pryor leading Cotton in one of them (46-43 in a Hickman Analytics poll) and down by 5 in a Marist poll. However, take two those w/a grain of salt (especially the Hickman one, which was done for the DSCC) Put simply, if the PPP numbers remain steady, Pryor is in trouble.
Now, even though there is yet to be a visible wave in the electoral horizon, this can’t be seen as good news for the Dems’ this fall, especially if Republicans can pick off a few other potentially vulnerable Dems’ elsewhere.