Odds Favor Republicans In Midterm Senate Battle   2 comments

…so says Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics:

“The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them.”

“While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too many close races left and more than a month to go, when big gaffes, unexpected legal actions, and national events can potentially flip a Senate seat or two.”

“But right now, Democrats are behind the eight-ball (as well as the Crystal Ball). So many undecided contests are winnable for the GOP that the party would have to have a string of bad luck — combined with a truly exceptional Democratic get-out-the-vote program — to snatch defeat from the wide-open jaws of victory. Or Republicans would have to truly shoot themselves in the foot in at least one race, which has become a clear possibility over the last few weeks in Kansas.”(UVA Center for Politics via Political Wire)

I’m of two minds here on Sabato’s thoughts above…on the one hand, there’s still not the sense that a broad, overarching GOP wave is about us yet, electorally speaking. On the other hand, I’m starting to wonder if we Dems’ should start girding ourselves for Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader come Jan. 2015…and that thought scares the hell out of me.


2 responses to “Odds Favor Republicans In Midterm Senate Battle

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  1. The pendulum is swinging back in the GOP direction, and the DEMs haven’t made the most of their time in power. For the record, the swing back in the GOP direction scares the heck out of me. Just because I see it doesn’t mean I like it. I’m a DEM for life as far as my voting habits go, but ummm. The whole two-party thing is taking a toll on my sanity. That’s the best way I can say it.

    I found you through that Facebook group, just so you know.

    I’m not a political blogger, but I am a political person 🙂

    • As I look at it, Gene’O, this is going to be one of those elections where, if there is a wave, its’ going to be on an individual state-by-state basis where Republicans have – unlike in 2010 or 2012 – not shot themselves in the foot with candidates who were ideologically pure but couldn’t win in the general. This go-round – Iowa notwithstanding and even there they might win – they’ve managed to dodge every bullet possible and they could very well pick up a majority.

      Things could be worse, though: imagine if they’d dodged all those bullets back in 2010 & 2012…we wouldn’t be talking a potential GOP majority; we’d be discussing whether they could possibly hit 60 seats in the Senate.

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