Over at Daily Kos, Jeff Singer has an excellent column on what to expect on Election Night tomorrow and an hour-by-hour guide to the election. Just in case you’re wondering, here’s the list of states by closing time:
6pm: Indiana, Kentucky
7pm: Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
7:30pm: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri,, New Jersey,, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, DC
9pm: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming
10pm: Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah:
11pm: California, Hawaii, Washington
…who needs enemies?
The Hill has just been unrelenting in its predictions of doom for the Democrats in this election cycle, to the point where they are now reporting that self-proclaimed “Clinton Democrats” like Mark Pryor and Alison Lundergan Grimes are “falling flat” in their efforts to get elected.
Maybe the Clinton Democrats (whether self-proclaimed or not) will fall flat on November 4th, but it does seem a bit premature to make that characterization. The polls have not been encouraging for the Democrats over the last few weeks, but they show dead heats in southern states like Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Considering that all of those states except Florida voted for Mitt Romney, and considering that this is a midterm election cycle that favors the Republicans, and considering that this is the sixth year of an incumbent president’s term, and considering that the president’s approval numbers are weak, the proper conclusion should be that the Republicans are struggling somewhat inexplicably to put away campaigns in their own strongholds.
But the spin we get is that it is the Democrats that are struggling.
My answer to that is, “We’ll see, won’t we?”(Booman Tribune)
Booman makes a good point above and that point is that in this electoral environment (second Presidential midterm election, midterm election, a political environment favoring the GPO, etc.), Republicans should be running away with the polls in those states mentioned above yet they’re not, which points more towards how batshit crazy some of their candidates are (AR’s Tom Cotton comes to mind, for instance)…in the past two election cycles, that came back in the end to bite the Republicans hard in the ass come Election Night.
Could lightning strike a third time for Democrats and save their Senate majority? We’ll know 15 days from now.
Given that, (a)a million dollars goes a long way in South Dakota and (b)that both Laurence Lessig’s super PAC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have already dropped a mil-each into the state, is it safe to say that South Dakota is now on the political radar screens?
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is in the process of reserving $1 million in South Dakota television time, Politico reports.
“The independent expenditure matches a million-dollar effort announced by its Democratic counterpart earlier in the week to put the state back on the map.”(Political Wire)
…and the campaign field grows ever wider…
I’m of two minds on the GOP’s decision here to withdraw ad buys from Michigan…on the one hand, this could signify that Republicans have all-but-given up on flipping the state from blue to red; most polls in the state show outgoing Rep. Gary Peters with comfortable leads over Republican Terri Lynn Land.
On the other hand, this also means they can add more resources to other states with competitive races, so this is basically a wash either way.
…so says Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics:
“The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them.”
“While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too many close races left and more than a month to go, when big gaffes, unexpected legal actions, and national events can potentially flip a Senate seat or two.”
“But right now, Democrats are behind the eight-ball (as well as the Crystal Ball). So many undecided contests are winnable for the GOP that the party would have to have a string of bad luck — combined with a truly exceptional Democratic get-out-the-vote program — to snatch defeat from the wide-open jaws of victory. Or Republicans would have to truly shoot themselves in the foot in at least one race, which has become a clear possibility over the last few weeks in Kansas.”(UVA Center for Politics via Political Wire)
I’m of two minds here on Sabato’s thoughts above…on the one hand, there’s still not the sense that a broad, overarching GOP wave is about us yet, electorally speaking. On the other hand, I’m starting to wonder if we Dems’ should start girding ourselves for Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader come Jan. 2015…and that thought scares the hell out of me.
…courtesy of Public Policy Polling, which recently polled both Arkansas and Alaska..and what they found was not good for each state’s resident senator:
- In Alaska, PPP found that incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D) is still neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Dan Sullivan. While Sullivan leads 43-41, the PPP crosstabs held a major warning sign for Begich; in their polling, he currently holds a favorable/unfavorable rating of -11 (41-52) while Sullivan is at +2 (44-42). Now, if this holds up, that spells trouble for Begich as no incumbent senator wants to have a negative rating there in a state where the sitting president is already unpopular
- In Arkansas, PPP found worse news for the Dems’ as incumbent Sen. mark Pryor (D) currently trails outgoing Rep. Tom Cotton (R) 43-38, which is a 3-point increase for Cotton from early August. Worse still, Pryor has a favorable/unfavorable rating of -15 (36-51) while Cotton breaks even – barely – at -1 (40-41). Now, a pair of other polls had Pryor leading Cotton in one of them (46-43 in a Hickman Analytics poll) and down by 5 in a Marist poll. However, take two those w/a grain of salt (especially the Hickman one, which was done for the DSCC) Put simply, if the PPP numbers remain steady, Pryor is in trouble.
Now, even though there is yet to be a visible wave in the electoral horizon, this can’t be seen as good news for the Dems’ this fall, especially if Republicans can pick off a few other potentially vulnerable Dems’ elsewhere.
If this Cleveland Plain-Dealer article is any indication, it would appear so…my own view is that the midterms, while they could still go either way, don’t appear at present to be coalescing into a wave for the GOP. Now, that doesn’t mean that we Dems’ can rest easier, but it does mean that, instead of a broad wave where every race of note gets swamped, it does mean that individual races are going to either rise or fall by their own accords and not by a national wave effect.