Over at Daily Kos, Jeff Singer has an excellent column on what to expect on Election Night tomorrow and an hour-by-hour guide to the election. Just in case you’re wondering, here’s the list of states by closing time:
6pm: Indiana, Kentucky
7pm: Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
7:30pm: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri,, New Jersey,, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, DC
9pm: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming
10pm: Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah:
11pm: California, Hawaii, Washington
Over at Booman Tribune – one of the top progressive news sites, I might add – there’s an interesting article written by the Booman himself over the alchemy of trying to make electoral predictions…and FWIW, he’s dead-to-rights on just how hard it can be to predict what’s going to happen in elections.
That said, I’m also a believer in the age-old truism that anything can and truly happen in an election season…
…who needs enemies?
The Hill has just been unrelenting in its predictions of doom for the Democrats in this election cycle, to the point where they are now reporting that self-proclaimed “Clinton Democrats” like Mark Pryor and Alison Lundergan Grimes are “falling flat” in their efforts to get elected.
Maybe the Clinton Democrats (whether self-proclaimed or not) will fall flat on November 4th, but it does seem a bit premature to make that characterization. The polls have not been encouraging for the Democrats over the last few weeks, but they show dead heats in southern states like Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Considering that all of those states except Florida voted for Mitt Romney, and considering that this is a midterm election cycle that favors the Republicans, and considering that this is the sixth year of an incumbent president’s term, and considering that the president’s approval numbers are weak, the proper conclusion should be that the Republicans are struggling somewhat inexplicably to put away campaigns in their own strongholds.
But the spin we get is that it is the Democrats that are struggling.
My answer to that is, “We’ll see, won’t we?”(Booman Tribune)
Booman makes a good point above and that point is that in this electoral environment (second Presidential midterm election, midterm election, a political environment favoring the GPO, etc.), Republicans should be running away with the polls in those states mentioned above yet they’re not, which points more towards how batshit crazy some of their candidates are (AR’s Tom Cotton comes to mind, for instance)…in the past two election cycles, that came back in the end to bite the Republicans hard in the ass come Election Night.
Could lightning strike a third time for Democrats and save their Senate majority? We’ll know 15 days from now.
If this Booman Tribune article is any indication, it could appear so…
The political world outside of South Dakota learned some stunning news last week: Mike Rounds, the guy everybody assumed would be the next senator from South Dakota, actually has been running a campaign more suited for sheriff of Mayberry County than U.S. Senate…
…Rounds failed to raise the resources necessary to defend himself in the cutthroat world of U.S. Senate campaigns, where millions of dollars can be beamed into a race with the flip of a switch. Rounds woke up last week to find $3 million of hostile money sitting outside his comfy campaign headquarters in Pierre. And there’s nothing he can do about it…
…Rounds reassembled a campaign team from his days as governor. The team was adequate for a governor’s race. The problem is, nobody outside of South Dakota cares who is governor of the state. Senate races are fought on an entirely different level — the difference between high school football and pro football. GOP leaders were concerned that Rounds and his team didn’t grasp this reality. As it turns out, justifiably so.(Sioux Falls Argus Leader via. Booman Tribune)
FWIW, I’m still not certain that South Dakota is completely winnable for Democrats – current polling has Rounds eking out a very slim lead over Independent (and former GOP Sen.) Larry Pressler with populist Democrat Rick Weiland right behind them – but I’m starting to get a sense that it is entirely losable for Republicans. Chalk this election up as one where no one – and I mean no one – saw this on anyone’s radar screens at the beginning of the election cycle.
Given that, (a)a million dollars goes a long way in South Dakota and (b)that both Laurence Lessig’s super PAC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have already dropped a mil-each into the state, is it safe to say that South Dakota is now on the political radar screens?
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is in the process of reserving $1 million in South Dakota television time, Politico reports.
“The independent expenditure matches a million-dollar effort announced by its Democratic counterpart earlier in the week to put the state back on the map.”(Political Wire)
…and the campaign field grows ever wider…
…so says Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics:
“The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them.”
“While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too many close races left and more than a month to go, when big gaffes, unexpected legal actions, and national events can potentially flip a Senate seat or two.”
“But right now, Democrats are behind the eight-ball (as well as the Crystal Ball). So many undecided contests are winnable for the GOP that the party would have to have a string of bad luck — combined with a truly exceptional Democratic get-out-the-vote program — to snatch defeat from the wide-open jaws of victory. Or Republicans would have to truly shoot themselves in the foot in at least one race, which has become a clear possibility over the last few weeks in Kansas.”(UVA Center for Politics via Political Wire)
I’m of two minds here on Sabato’s thoughts above…on the one hand, there’s still not the sense that a broad, overarching GOP wave is about us yet, electorally speaking. On the other hand, I’m starting to wonder if we Dems’ should start girding ourselves for Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader come Jan. 2015…and that thought scares the hell out of me.