Over at Daily Kos, Jeff Singer has an excellent column on what to expect on Election Night tomorrow and an hour-by-hour guide to the election. Just in case you’re wondering, here’s the list of states by closing time:
6pm: Indiana, Kentucky
7pm: Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
7:30pm: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri,, New Jersey,, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, DC
9pm: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming
10pm: Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah:
11pm: California, Hawaii, Washington
While the eyes of the nation remain focused on the Bluegrass State tonight, there were a few other races of note across the country as voters went to the polls in Georgia, Pennsylvania and a few other states:
- In the Peach State, Republican voters look set to face two more months of primary campaigning as a runoff appears on the horizon between outgoing Rep. Jack Kingston and Georgia businessman David Perdue; at present, Perdue leads 30-28 over Kingston with about 64% of the vote so far
- In the Keystone State, Democratic voters nominated businessman and progressive-supported candidate Tom Wolf over Third Way-supported Rep. Allyson Schwartz with 58% of the vote vs. 18% for Schwartz
- In Pennsylvania’s 13th District, former Rep. Marjorie Margolies, who once served in Congress back in the early 90’s, lost her nomination fight to PA State Rep. Brendan Boyle 40-27.
- Out in Oregon, pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Webhy, who’d been subjected to some very negative campaign ads in the last week of the campaign, won the GOP nomination to face incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley in November. Webhy beat several challengers, garnering 51% of the primary vote
note: post updated to include the Oregon GOP Senate primary results
I’m of two minds in regards to a recent article over at The Hill by Democratic strategist James Carville concerning Democratic prospects for this November. On the one hand, like Carville, I watched the Florida-13 special election results with one eye on Nov.2014 (and one eye on the nearest straight razor) thinking, “if we can’t win an even-out special election, what’s going to happen come Election Day?”
On the other hand, Carville’s dead-to-rights in regards to elections and various political trendlines at present: while things are admittedly not looking good for the Dems’ right now, the election’s still seven+ months away and the trendlines concerning ObamaCare are getting better each month. Things will turn around on the law in question…the question, though, will be whether Democrats can seize the political high-ground from Republicans and, (a)hold onto the Senate and (b)possibly sneak out a few gubernatorial wins as well.
Going into the 2014 raft of gubernatorial races, one race that might’ve escaped focus at present is that of the Peach State, Georgia, where incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal (R) could face a general election challenge from the grandson of a iconic Georgia native…
As Wendy Davis’s campaign for Texas governor flounders, Democrats in Washington have begun to cast their eyes elsewhere for a good news story in the solid-red South.
They believe they may have found that in Georgia, where a combination of demographic trends and a
slate full of famous political names is giving Democrats in the state an unfamiliar feeling: Hope.
Topping the ticket (which Republicans have tagged as “Downton Abbey Democrats” for children seeking their ancestors’ titles) is Jason Carter, the 38 year-old state senator and grandson of former president Jimmy Carter, who is challenging Republican Gov. Nathan Deal.
Along with Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former senator Sam Nunn, and Chris Irvin, the grandson of a four-decade occupant of the state’s powerful Agriculture Commissioner post, Carter is part of the strongest statewide ticket Georgia Democrats have fielded in years.(The Daily Beast)
They ain’t whistling Dixie on this one; unlike Texas, where national Dems’ all-but-forgot to keep a political bench stocked over the past 2 decades, Georgia Dems’ have kept a relatively decent political bench of note (with such notables as Rep. John Barrow, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed and former Gov. Roy Barnes) and this could, not only on the gubernatorial side but on the Senate side, yield surprises come election time. Demographics also have helped as well…
Add some numbers to those names and you’ll see why Democrats think they could soon see a governor or senator come out of Georgia, even though Republicans hold every statewide office, the state House and the state Senate.
Of the state’s 1.5 million new residents between 2000 and 2010, 81 percent were non-white, including 1.2 million African Americans. Since 1990, the state’s Hispanic population has increased eight-fold, while the Asian-American population has quadrupled.
Democrats point to those population changes as the reason behind President Barack Obama’s performance there in 2012, when his campaign spent no money but still managed to keep Mitt Romney to his second narrowest victory of any state in the country.(The Daily Beast)
That last point bears repeating: although the Obama 2012 campaign spent no money in Georgia, they still managed to pick up 45% or so of the presidential vote. Think about that one for a moment…
Now, to be fair, Carter winning in Georgia is still a long shot at present; for the current raft of GOP governors, Nathan Deal’s managex to, (a)keep an honest approach to governance and (b)remain reasonably competent, the recent Atlanta freeze-over notwithstanding….that said, this is definitely a race worth watching come November.
Going into this year’s election cycle, it was a sure bet (at first) that the Virginia Gubernatorial election would be one of the closest, if not nastiest…on the other hand, if I’m reading this right, Republicans are in panic mode over the growing collapse of their chances to hold on to the statehouse this November. Quoting Politico (via. Political Wire):
Republicans can’t believe this is happening: Democrat Terry McAuliffe — whose controversial business dealings and past life as a party moneyman make him a walking negative ad — has taken command of the Virginia governor’s race.
More than a dozen interviews last week with longtime Republican insiders around the Commonwealth yielded near-unanimous consensus that their candidate, state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, lost significant ground over the summer and would lose if the election were held today.
The only real point of disagreement is how wide a margin it would be.
“It’s going to be a bath,” one prominent state Republican who wants Cuccinelli to win went so far as to say. Like several others, the person sought anonymity to speak candidly about the state of the race.(Politico)
As Politico points out, there are a few reasons as to why Republicans are panicking:
- Continuing fallout over Gov. Bob McDonnell’s various scandals
- A divided Va. Republican Party
- Cuccinelli’s abandonment of Northern Virginia
- Terry McAuliffe’s near-Teflon like ability to ward off scandals of his own
- Democrats winning the ad war vs. Republicans
Let me throw in one last line: E.W. Jackson. What do you want to bet that some Commonwealth voters, when they walk into that voting booth, will say something to the effect of, “gee, I like Cuccinelli…but I absolutely loathe Jackson, so I’m going to vote for McAuliffe instead’. Call it “the Palin effect” at the state level.
Should we still go ahead and bring the popcorn, though?
Guess it was time for Terry McAuliffe and Ken Cuccinelli to break out the long knives, wasn’t it? That’s the story coming out of Virginia as the weeks whittle away to the November gubernatorial election, 2013’s big-ticket election of the year as both sides, along with both the Republican & Democratic Governors’ Associations, have begun airing attack ads in the Commonwealth.
Basically, the ads could be summed up as follows…
- Cuccinelli attacks McAuliffe for his failed business efforts vis-a-vis Global Crossing back in the early 2000’s (with attendant accusations from Global Crossing people who were interviewed that they were duped into discussing Global Crossing under false assumptions)
- McAuliffe attacks Cuccinelli for being in the same corruptive boat at current Va. Gov. Bob McDonnell in regards to corruption allegations stemming from McDonnell’s relationship w/Star Systems
- both the RGA and DGA attack their respective opponents with negative ads of a similar nature to those of the candidates
- McAuliffe attacks Cuccinelli a second time with an ad brought to the fore by a Va. Democratic-affiliated Super PAC attacking Cuccinelli for his support of “fathers’ rights” in regards to child support cases and opposition to no-fault divorces
How many days is it until Election Day 2013?
Impressive, if not overwhelming haul of dollars by the Democratic Governors Association in the first half of 2013…
The Democratic Governors Association Chair Peter Shumlin announced Friday that the organization raised $15 million in the first six months of 2013, a record haul in an off-year.
The $15 million figure is 30 percent more than the committee raised in the first half of 2009, the last comparable time period. That year, the DGA raised $11.6 million from January through June.
“With these resources, the DGA is well-positioned to help take back statehouses that belong firmly in Democratic hands,” Vermont Gov. Shumlin said in a statement. “As we recruit strong candidates and build the infrastructure needed to win across the country, we will continue to communicate that in order to put an end to Tea Party-style governance in America, it’s critical we elect more Democratic governors.”(Politico)
…now, given the gubernatorial landscape for 2014, the question is whether the DGA can succeed. Looking at the map of governor’s races next year, it’ll be interesting to see what happens but given the vagaries of American politics, who knows what could happen between now and November 2014…