Over at Daily Kos, Jeff Singer has an excellent column on what to expect on Election Night tomorrow and an hour-by-hour guide to the election. Just in case you’re wondering, here’s the list of states by closing time:
6pm: Indiana, Kentucky
7pm: Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
7:30pm: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri,, New Jersey,, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, DC
9pm: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming
10pm: Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah:
11pm: California, Hawaii, Washington
Over at Booman Tribune – one of the top progressive news sites, I might add – there’s an interesting article written by the Booman himself over the alchemy of trying to make electoral predictions…and FWIW, he’s dead-to-rights on just how hard it can be to predict what’s going to happen in elections.
That said, I’m also a believer in the age-old truism that anything can and truly happen in an election season…
For what its’ worth, it’ll be sad to see Oklahoma’s Tom Coburn retiring…though I’ve long disagreed with him politically, on issues such as wasteful government spending, I think he’s right to call out Washington on it and for that, Washington will be a slightly smaller place after he leaves.
…who needs enemies?
The Hill has just been unrelenting in its predictions of doom for the Democrats in this election cycle, to the point where they are now reporting that self-proclaimed “Clinton Democrats” like Mark Pryor and Alison Lundergan Grimes are “falling flat” in their efforts to get elected.
Maybe the Clinton Democrats (whether self-proclaimed or not) will fall flat on November 4th, but it does seem a bit premature to make that characterization. The polls have not been encouraging for the Democrats over the last few weeks, but they show dead heats in southern states like Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Considering that all of those states except Florida voted for Mitt Romney, and considering that this is a midterm election cycle that favors the Republicans, and considering that this is the sixth year of an incumbent president’s term, and considering that the president’s approval numbers are weak, the proper conclusion should be that the Republicans are struggling somewhat inexplicably to put away campaigns in their own strongholds.
But the spin we get is that it is the Democrats that are struggling.
My answer to that is, “We’ll see, won’t we?”(Booman Tribune)
Booman makes a good point above and that point is that in this electoral environment (second Presidential midterm election, midterm election, a political environment favoring the GPO, etc.), Republicans should be running away with the polls in those states mentioned above yet they’re not, which points more towards how batshit crazy some of their candidates are (AR’s Tom Cotton comes to mind, for instance)…in the past two election cycles, that came back in the end to bite the Republicans hard in the ass come Election Night.
Could lightning strike a third time for Democrats and save their Senate majority? We’ll know 15 days from now.
If this Booman Tribune article is any indication, it could appear so…
The political world outside of South Dakota learned some stunning news last week: Mike Rounds, the guy everybody assumed would be the next senator from South Dakota, actually has been running a campaign more suited for sheriff of Mayberry County than U.S. Senate…
…Rounds failed to raise the resources necessary to defend himself in the cutthroat world of U.S. Senate campaigns, where millions of dollars can be beamed into a race with the flip of a switch. Rounds woke up last week to find $3 million of hostile money sitting outside his comfy campaign headquarters in Pierre. And there’s nothing he can do about it…
…Rounds reassembled a campaign team from his days as governor. The team was adequate for a governor’s race. The problem is, nobody outside of South Dakota cares who is governor of the state. Senate races are fought on an entirely different level — the difference between high school football and pro football. GOP leaders were concerned that Rounds and his team didn’t grasp this reality. As it turns out, justifiably so.(Sioux Falls Argus Leader via. Booman Tribune)
FWIW, I’m still not certain that South Dakota is completely winnable for Democrats – current polling has Rounds eking out a very slim lead over Independent (and former GOP Sen.) Larry Pressler with populist Democrat Rick Weiland right behind them – but I’m starting to get a sense that it is entirely losable for Republicans. Chalk this election up as one where no one – and I mean no one – saw this on anyone’s radar screens at the beginning of the election cycle.
…oh, this is nice…now the parties have a new means of being corrupted by the powers-that-be:
WASHINGTON — Watchdog groups Thursday lambasted the nation’s election regulators for opening up another spigot of campaign money for national political parties.
By a 4-2 vote, the Federal Election Commission allowed the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the Republican National Committee (RNC) to raise money to help fund their 2016 political conventions.
This year, Congress voted to cut off the millions that taxpayers normally provide to help underwrite the political extravaganzas where each party formally nominates its White House contender. Organizers were entitled to receive $18.2 million in federal funds for each of the 2012 conventions. Congress has opted to direct the money to pediatric medical research instead.
The political parties, scrambling for ways to make up the lost convention cash, won permission Thursday to set up new fundraising arms that will allow an individual to contribute up to $32,400 a year for the convention on top of the contributor’s other donations to the party.
That paves the way for wealthy individuals to contribute more than $250,000 to either the DNC or RNC during a four-year presidential election cycle, according to officials with the Campaign Legal Center watchdog group.
“This is a disgraceful and activist decision that ignores the laws passed by Congress to combat corruption,” the center’s Larry Noble said in a statement.(USA Today)
Elections have consequences…so do judicial decisions as well and thanks to both Citizens United & McCutcheon, the spigots are even more wide open for corruption to flow through.
…is it just me or did Vice President Biden step on it once again with cleated track shoes?
Vice President Joe Biden discussed his feelings about being the second-most powerful man in the country during an event at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics on Thursday night when a young man in the audience introduced himself as vice president of the student body.
“Isn’t it a b—h?” Biden said with a smile. “Excuse me, the vice president thing.”
Biden’s remarks drew laughs from the audience. He went on to clarify the comment was made in jest.
“I’m joking, I’m joking, I’m joking. Best decision I ever made. I’m joking — that was a joke,” Biden said.
The student said he hoped Biden loved being vice president.
“I do, actually,” Biden said, adding, “I love the guy I work with.”
Biden, who has something of a reputation for making eyebrow-raising comments, ran for president in 2008 and 1988. He also has not ruled out a potential 2016 White House bid.(Business Insider)
…maybe its’ just me but sometimes its’ better to simply shut the hell up and let people think you’re a fool instead of opening your trap and proving to the world that you are a fool…