Over at Booman Tribune – one of the top progressive news sites, I might add – there’s an interesting article written by the Booman himself over the alchemy of trying to make electoral predictions…and FWIW, he’s dead-to-rights on just how hard it can be to predict what’s going to happen in elections.
That said, I’m also a believer in the age-old truism that anything can and truly happen in an election season…
…who needs enemies?
The Hill has just been unrelenting in its predictions of doom for the Democrats in this election cycle, to the point where they are now reporting that self-proclaimed “Clinton Democrats” like Mark Pryor and Alison Lundergan Grimes are “falling flat” in their efforts to get elected.
Maybe the Clinton Democrats (whether self-proclaimed or not) will fall flat on November 4th, but it does seem a bit premature to make that characterization. The polls have not been encouraging for the Democrats over the last few weeks, but they show dead heats in southern states like Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Considering that all of those states except Florida voted for Mitt Romney, and considering that this is a midterm election cycle that favors the Republicans, and considering that this is the sixth year of an incumbent president’s term, and considering that the president’s approval numbers are weak, the proper conclusion should be that the Republicans are struggling somewhat inexplicably to put away campaigns in their own strongholds.
But the spin we get is that it is the Democrats that are struggling.
My answer to that is, “We’ll see, won’t we?”(Booman Tribune)
Booman makes a good point above and that point is that in this electoral environment (second Presidential midterm election, midterm election, a political environment favoring the GPO, etc.), Republicans should be running away with the polls in those states mentioned above yet they’re not, which points more towards how batshit crazy some of their candidates are (AR’s Tom Cotton comes to mind, for instance)…in the past two election cycles, that came back in the end to bite the Republicans hard in the ass come Election Night.
Could lightning strike a third time for Democrats and save their Senate majority? We’ll know 15 days from now.
I’m of two minds here on an article over at Crooks & Liars about a recent Public Policy Polling poll which hinted at the possibility of Republicans losing the House in November…on the one hand, given the current makeup of the House at present, the odds are long, to say the least, of Democrats’ retaking the house; most electoral projections show – at best – a wash for neither party and – at worst – the Dems’ losing seats on Election Night.
On the other hand, given how the public is slowly starting to see just how craven and politically far-out-in-right-field House Republicans are at present, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that we could see the Dems’ retake the House; quoting C & L:
The poll looked at seats currently held by Republicans in California, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, and found that voters in those districts preferred a generic Democrat to the incumbent in 17 of those districts — enough to return control of the House to Democrats.
The margins are slim in most cases, it would be a statistical toss-up. But the more telling findings were items such as how many have a favorable view of the Tea Party — not very many as it turns out.(Crooks & Liars)
Translation: a lot of things would have to fall in place for this to happen but it could happen.
….you know, for a Democratic incumbent seen by some as all-but-dead on arrival come Election Night this November, he sure as hell still has a lot of fight left in him:
A new Anzalone Lizst Grove Research (D) poll in Arkansas finds Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) leads Rep. Tom Cotton (R) in the U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 48% to 45%, with 7% of the electorate undecided. More evidence Pryor is ahead: The AP reports that Cotton called for a series of five debates with Pryor.(Political Wire)
Now, I know I’ve criticized Sen. Pryor in the past before (and for good reason) but, given the fact that Pryor (and several other Dems’ this November) are fighting for their political lives in an election season that’s all-but-tailor-made for Republicans to potentially run the table, this is good news for Pryor and – to a lesser extent – for Democratic chances this November.
Though Virginia voters still have a good bit of time to decide who their next governor is, this week’s polling seems to indicate 2 things:
- that both major candidates, Terry McAuliffe(D) and Ken Cuccinelli(R), are still widely unpopular with Virginia voters(McAuliffe 36-48, Cuccinelli 35-54), and
- that, even with their underwater popularity(McAuliffe -12, Cuccinelli -19), voters seem to have begun gravitating over to McAuliffe(most recent poll results: McAuliffe 44-37 w/19 percent undecided)
Now, the only question, given all that, is will Terry McAuliffe somehow figure out a way to hold onto that lead above? If he can, this race might be tipping towards the Dems’…
While there are still a few months before Virginia voters choose their next governor, this should give Democrats’ in the Commonwealth something to smile over…according to a recent Quinnipiac poll, Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe leads his Republican counterpart, Va. Atty.Gen. Ken Cuccinelli 48-42. Quoting Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown…
“The campaign has been light on issues and big on personalities, and it is in the area of personal characteristics that McAuliffe has a small edge. It seems obvious that Gov. Bob McDonnell’s political troubles are hurting fellow Republican Cuccinelli. Guilt by association may not be fair, but it sure is politically powerful. Trust matters and at this point neither man is doing all that well in that category.”(Quinnipiac)
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: not only is the Viriginia gubernatorial race turning out to be as low-brow and gutteral as expected, this may be one where voters all-but-hold their noses as they cast their ballots this November.
If last week’s polling sent chills through the spines of Democrats’ hoping to hold onto the Senate, this week’s polling from Louisiana should make them feel a little better; according to Public Policy Polling, incumbent La. Senator Mary Landrieu, in a set of hypothetical 1-on-1 Senate races, leads several of her prospective opponents as follows…
- vs. Rep. Bill Cassidy – Landrieu leads 50-40
- vs. retired USAF Col. Rob Maness – Landrieu leads 50-37
- vs. La. St.Sen. Elbert Guillory – Landrieu leads 50-36
I’m of two minds as I look at the above….on the one hand, Sen. Landrieu still has some work to do in order to hold that Senate seat for the Dems’ next year; on the other hand, it says something about the current weakness of the GOP field for her to be leading by double-digits 15 months out from the election.